From June 11-16 (reserve day June 16), the cricketing world looks to Lord’s, London – the “Home of Cricket” – where two powerhouses, Australia and South Africa, will battle it out for supremacy in the World Test Championship (WTC) Final. The defending champions against first-time finalists. Expect the tension, flair and indeed, a great spectacle.
Getting to Lord’s: How They Arrived Here
The WTC is based on points-percentage, rewarding consistency in both home and away series, so let’s take look at their journeys to the Final.
Australia
• Matches Played: 19 Tests
• Record: 13 wins, 4 losses, 2 draws
• Points Percentage: 67.54%
Australia came out of England with a drawn Ashes series to begin the year, but then dominated at home—sweeping a 3–0 series against Pakistan. Unfortunately a minor stumble at home against West Indies ended up as a 1–1 draw, but Australia recovered with a 2–0 series win against New Zealand (away). It was the Border-Gavaskar Trophy at home against India that appeared to be a disaster when Australia lost the first Test. Australia eventually bounced back to take three Tests to win the Trophy. Australia then finished off their league with a 2–0 series victory on their tour of Sri Lanka. The combination of form at home and grit away earned them second place.
South Africa
• Matches played: 12 Tests
• Record: 8 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw
• Points Percentage: 69.44%
South Africa had a bumpy start to the league, with a difficult 2–0 series loss in New Zealand, and 1–1 draw at home against India, but they unleashed a winning streak—1–0 in the West Indies, 2–0 against Bangladesh, 2–0 away against Sri Lanka and 2–0 against Pakistan (away). The consistency and perfect run against mid-tier teams meant South Africa was the only team to finish top of the table.
Head-to-Head & Recent Form
• Overall Tests Played: Australia leads with 54-26 from 101 matches, with 21 draws.
• Recent WTC Cycle:
• Australia was second in points (67.54%).
• South Africa was first (69.44%).
Form:
• Australia: five wins from the last five Tests.
• South Africa: were very good at one stage winning seven in a row.
Australia possesses a more experienced edge, which will likely help in the pressure games; South Africa, however, is on a fearless charge through the WTC campaign.
Squads & Key Players
Australia (captain Pat Cummins).
• Batting: Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Inglis.
• Bowling: Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Boland, Lyon, Kuhnemann.
• Good depth in batting; several bowling types, including Lyon as a slower option.
South Africa (captain Temba Bavuma).
• Batting: Bavuma, Markram, De Zorzi, Stubbs, Bedingham, Rickelton, Verreynne.
• Bowling: Rabada, Ngidi, Paterson, Maharaj, Muthusamy, Bosch, Jansen.
• Pace, with Rabada as the spearhead; Maharaj is the slow option, but South Africa has less overall depth.
Likelihood of Victory: Who Are the Favorites?
Australia
• Strengths: They have the ability to win under pressure, as Australia defeated India at The Oval in a 2023 final. Australia has a well-balanced squad with a deep attack. Two Players to watch: Steve Smith (Currently the 5th best Test batsman) & Cummins (Currently the 3rd best bowler).
• Weaknesses: Vulnerable to spin if Lyon gets match-up support; immense pressure in defending their title – but overall, the squad has plenty of experience in this situation.
South Africa
• Strengths: Good form and momentum, strong pacers with Rabada as the no. 2 bowler, hungry to release themselves from the “choker” label.
• Weaknesses: No match-winning spin; a batting line-up without experience in winning finals; first time in a big-show event.
Verdict: Bookmakers and experts seem to favor Australia, however South Africa are fundamentals to this theory, undefeated with a series mental edge. It has all the makings of a fine test of nerves and skill.
Lord’s: Can The Pitch Make a Difference?
Why is Lord’s Special?
• It has an iconic north–south slope that offers slight bounce & swing opportunities for pace bowlers.
• It’s a swing-lover’s paradise but the swing conditions would favor seamers when there is cloud cover and damp conditions early, with spinners getting caught out if the rain interrupts their class moments.
Pitch Outlook & Impact on Pacers vs Spinners
• Initial Days (1–2): Greenish, moisture and cloud cover- ideal for seamers. Kings of the early spell will have their day.
• Once it flattens (Days 3-5), seam and swing will be lessened, but cracks and wear can provide assistance for spinners
Where is the greater benefit?
• Pacers: Huge advantage Day 1-2 for both sides- Australia having Starc, Hazlewood, Cummins vs SA’s Rabada, Ngidi.
• Spinners: Lyon is a top operator, Maharaj is dependable. But Australia has them in the depth department.
Conclusion: Swing, Spin & Strategy
• Toss: The winning captain may choose to bowl first to take advantage of the early conditions, but if they bat first, they are less likely to see the wicket deteriorate into days 3-5. It is a question of strategy.
• Australia’s case for dominance is in the depth of its batting, and the combination of seam-spinners.
• South Africa’s case for advantage is in its pace firepower and the psychological momentum it carries.
Who will win the Mace?
In what will be a dual fluctuating by spin and swing, Australia’s advantages appear, on paper, plausible: squad balance, record at Lord’s, recent title defense experience. Of course, cricket can be woefully hypocritical. An explosive spell from Rabada or a resilient partnership from SA could shift the narrative.
The bottom-line: expect a thrilling test match, and if Australia manage to control the early conditions and let Lyon loose towards the back end, the pendulum will likely rest on their side of the fence. However, if South Africa’s pacers strike fast and rapid, along with the batsmen showing similar girt, we could witness history.
Conclusion
In the end, it does not matter who wins; it is celebrating the continuing fairytale of Test cricket. The moment these players have walked across several continents and earned their way to Lord’s, they show the brilliance of strategy, skill and passion. May the best team win and may cricket flourish in the purest form.
You can also read our latest blog on the shocking retirement of Nicholas Pooran from all formats at the age of 29.
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